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Tag Archives: risk

Equity Market Insights -A well-behaved market that will not last

https://gf-cap.com

 

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected”

– George Soros

  • The seesaw continues for risky assets as small caps take the lead for 2019
  • Over the last month, all major equity categories have lost money
  • Surprisingly, EM stocks have held up the best in this equity correction
  • Valuations while more reasonable than 3 months ago are not that favourable
  • The key for equity markets is growth and whether we are entering a slowdown or not

Countries & Region:

  • A global recovery but with large differences in global market performance
  • Commodity indices recovered last week as oil prices firmed up helping resource oriented markets
  • In the US Value slightly outperformed Growth last week – higher quality and dividend yield also made a difference
  • In international markets Value out-performed Growth by a wider margin than in the US
    • Energy performed best and Tech did the worst (Apple effect)

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, we saw a strong size effect last week with small caps dramatically out-performing
  • Value performed a bit better than Growth
  • Within equity styles, Quality and Div Yield strategies resulted in better performance
  • The Momentum trade has gone in reverse with last year’s biggest loser performing the best thus far in 2019
  • Latam shot up last week recovering from poor 2018 performance and the rise in oil prices

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Equity Technicals have deteriorated to the point that close to 65% of stocks in the Down Trend Phase
  • Political drama in Washington is exacerbating the uncertainty of market participants
  • Brexit is up for the spring but prospects of passing Parliament are slim. Could we be staring at Referendum 2.0?
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively under-performed large caps over the last 3 months but had a nice recovery
  • Surprisingly EM equities have outperformed developed markets in the last month.
  • Our models still favor a reduction in risk in our portfolios with positive active allocations to cash and bonds
  • This too shall pass but market participants are hyper nervous on things companies have no control over
  • The price of higher equity returns is discomfort – volatility has been too low in the last few years

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

______________________________________________________________________________

 

Global Focus Capital
Global Focus Capital
Global Focus Capital
Global Focus Capital

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

Asset Allocation Insights – Bad and Getting Worse for Equity Investors

Investors Shun Equities

  • A slow week with a bit of cheer for equity investors
  • US small caps recover the most – up 1% for the week but still down 21% over the last three months
  • REITS gave back some gains last week (down 1.7%) and are now also in negative territory for 2018
  • Commodity indices remain driven by lower oil prices with no sign of resurgent inflation
  • Aggressive, domestically focused multi-asset class strategies out-performed less risky options
  • YTD lower risk asset allocation strategies have outperformed especially if allocations involved international equities
  • Within equities, Growth slightly under-performed Value but Growth remains solidly ahead for the year
  • Cash remains the best performing of the major asset classes for the year

Currencies:

  • The USD is losing some strength as budget discussions in Washington remain unresolved and the Fed has indicated being close to done with rate hikes
  • A depreciating USD will boost international asset returns
  • The British Pound continued depreciating due to major uncertainty regarding BREXIT early in 2019
  • The Yen is now in a Break Out phase as investors remain very risk-averse and the Yen is usually considered the “safe” trade
  • Resource-oriented currencies experienced the biggest losses last week relative to the USD as commodity prices remain in a Down Trend
  • In general, FX volatility has increased substantially in the last couple of months

Commodities:

  • Commodity indices continue in a Down Trend as oil markets had another down leg
  • On the flipside, grain prices have been recovering since the summer
  • Natural gas prices were down over 8% due to warmer predicted weather and lower levels of fuel switching than anticipated
  • Gold and Silver had good weeks as investors have become more risk averse and the Fed has indicated only 2 more rate hikes for 2019
  • However, we still view US Treasuries as the best hedging option for equity risk

This Coming Week:

  • The year of risk-off continues with little to offer us hope that risky assets will recover soon – there may be a spike in January but risk is being shunned at the moment
  • While not comfortable, US investors should allocate more money to non-US stocks due to their lower valuations
  • The strong USD will not persist much stronger as the FED appears close to the end in terms of interest rate hikes
  • The Value/Growth discussion is being overshadowed by sector rotation but on a risk-adjusted basis we believe that higher allocations to Value are warranted
  • We are also watching out for any jump in inflationary expectations (which have been trending down). Tariffs are inflationary and will be reflected in higher consumer prices eventually
  • EM equities, in particular, are recovering. We still believe that an allocation is warranted. Our biggest concerns revolve around blowing out interest rate spreads and a slowing global economy
  • Leverage on the balance sheet of companies should be cross-checked for sustainability
  • We still see a risk on/off market next year making it difficult for short-term investors – probably best to extend horizons

__________________________________________________________________________________

To read our full weekly report please click here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

Equity Market Insights – Paralyzed by Fear

https://gf-cap.com

“Everything you’ve ever wanted is on the other side of fear”

– Jack Canfield

  • The seesaw continues for risky assets –a punch in the nose
  • Last week was particularly bad as equity markets took a deep dive again
  • Surprisingly, EM stocks have lost the least over the last month but YTD remain the worst of the major equity categories
  • YTD US large caps are now in negative territory
  • International strategies have underperformed both in local market returns and a strong USD

Countries & Region:

  • The carnage continues –all major global markets took a nosedive with the US suffering the most
  • Commodity indices took another down leg last week as oil prices dropped again (-13%)
  • REITS are now down 2% for the year after a brutal -5.8% week
  • In the US Value and Growth both got pounded last week with Value outperforming by 1%
  • In international markets Growth under-performed Value last week by 50 bp.
  • Tech and Energy got hit the hardest last week

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, we saw a strong size effect last week with small caps dramatically under-performing
  • Value performed almost as badly as Growth
  • Within equity styles, Low Vol and Div Yield strategies resulted in smaller losses
  • The Momentum trade has gone in reverse
  • Emerging markets outperformed Developed international markets but remain still 15.5% down for the year

This Coming Week

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Equity Technicals have deteriorated to the point that close to ¾ of our stocks are in the Down Trend Phase
  • Political drama in Washington is exacerbating the uncertainty of market participants
  • Brexit is up for next year but prospects of passing Parliament are slim. Could we be staring at Referendum 2.0?
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively under-performed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
  • Surprisingly EM equities have outperformed developed markets in the last month.
  • Our models still favor a reduction in risk in our portfolios with positive active allocations to cash and bonds
  • This too shall pass but market participants are hyper nervous on things companies have no control over
  • The price of higher equity returns is discomfort – volatility has been too low in the last few years

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

Major Equity Markets

Asset Allocation Insights – Risk Is Off The Table

Investors Want No Part Of Risk

  • Another tough week for risky assets with no end in sight
  • US small caps take yet another down leg and are now down 7% for the year
  • REITS gave back some gains last week but remain our best key asset class for 2018 – up 4.1%
  • Commodity indices remain driven by lower oil prices with no sign of resurgent inflation
  • Aggressive, domestically focused multi-asset class strategies under-performed less risky options
  • YTD lower risk asset allocation strategies have outperformed especially if the allocations involved international equities
  • Within equities, Growth outperformed Value as Energy and Financials experienced large loses

Currencies:

  • The USD appreciated yet again last week and remains in a significant Up Trend
  • The British Pound continued depreciating due to major uncertainty regarding whether BREXIT will pass Parliament
  • The Yen continues in a Down Trend especially in light of lower economic growth in Japan
  • In general, FX volatility has increased substantially in the last couple of months

Commodities:

  • Commodity indices continue in a Down Trend as oil markets had another down leg
  • On the flipside, grain prices have been recovering since the summer but surprisingly soybeans were down despite increased Chinese purchases
  • Natural gas prices were down over 16% due to warmer predicted weather and lower levels of fuel switching than anticipated
  • Gold and Silver were slightly down last week but their technical picture has improved recently as risky assets continue cratering
    • We still view US Treasuries as best hedging option for stocks

This Coming Week:

  • The year of risk-off continues with little to offer us hope that risky assets will recover soon
  • While not comfortable, US investors should allocate more money to non-US stocks due to their lower valuations
  • The strong USD will not persist much stronger as the FED appears close to the end in terms of interest rate hikes
  • The Value/Growth discussion is being overshadowed by sector rotation but on a risk-adjusted basis we believe that higher allocations to Value are warranted
  • We are also watching out for any jump in inflationary expectations (which have been trending down)
    • Tariffs are inflationary and will be reflected in higher consumer prices eventually
  • EM equities, in particular, are recovering but will end up in the red this year
    • We still believe that an allocation is warranted
    • Our biggest concerns revolve around blowing out interest rate spreads and a slowing global economy
  • Leverage on the balance sheet of companies should be cross-checked for sustainability
  • We still see a risk on/off market next year making it difficult for short-term investors – probably best to extend horizons

__________________________________________________________________________________

To read our full weekly report please click here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Insights – Utilities Shine While Everything Else Gets Destroyed

Utilities are the new cool kids on the block

    • The seesaw continues for risky assets but utilities emerge as the standout performer
    • Last week was particularly bad as equity markets took a deep dive again
    • Surprisingly, EM stocks are up over the last month but YTD remain the worst of the major equity categories
    • YTD US large caps are barely in positive territory but US small caps are now down for the year
      • The S&P 500 is up 0.3% for the year while the Russell 2000 is down 4.6%
      • International strategies have underperformed both in local market returns and a strong USD

Countries & Region:

  • The carnage continues –all major global markets took a nosedive with Germany suffering the most
  • Commodity indices recovered last week as oil prices moved marginally up
  • REITS continue to be the standout performer – up 1.6% last week and over 6% for the year
  • In the US Value and Growth both got pounded last week (down 3.8%)
  • In international markets, Growth outperformed Value last week
    • Utilities continue delivering – only equity sector up last week

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, we saw a strong size effect last week with small caps dramatically under-performing
  • Value performed as badly as Growth despite Utilities being up for the week
  • Within equity styles, Low Vol and Div Yield strategies resulted in smaller losses
  • The Momentum trade has gone in reverse and Growth Stocks are key losers but remain ahead YTD
  • Emerging markets outperformed Developed international markets but remain still 13% down for the year
  • EM LATAM continues extremely volatile and was down 2% last week

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Equity Technicals have deteriorated to the point that over half of our US universe in is a Down Trend Phase
  • The exception are Utilities where 68% of our stocks are in an Up Trend
  • The political drama in Washington is exacerbating the uncertainty of market participants
  • Brexit is up this week – will the Parliament vote for it?
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively underperformed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
  • Surprisingly EM equities have outperformed developed markets in the last month.
  • REITS have performed extremely well and are YTD our best performing asset class
  • Our models still favor a reduction in risk in our portfolios with positive active allocations to cash and bonds

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Highlights – Momentum and Growth Get Mauled

Growth loses its edge as Momentum reverses

  • The last month has been brutal for equity investors
    • Higher rates contributed to this as well as slower expected global growth due to an escalation of tariffs
    • Surprisingly, EM stocks are up over the last month but YTD remain the worst of the major equity categories
  • YTD US large caps are barely in positive territory but US small caps are now down for the year
    • The S&P 500 is up 0.2% for the year while the Russell 2000 is down 2%
    • International strategies have underperformed both in local market returns and a strong USD

Countries & Region:

  • The carnage continues –US growth stocks took a huge pounding last week
  • Commodity indices took a beating last week (due to oil primarily) while the Real Estate market kept recovering
  • In the US Value out-performed Growth over the last 5 trading by over 130 bp
  • In international markets Value and Growth performed in line with each other
    • Traditional Value sectors such as Utilities and Staples outperformed along with Health Care
  • Technology and Energy were the two largest losers last week

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, we saw a strong size effect last week with mega-caps under-performing
  • Value once again out-performed Growth as the Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate performed well
  • The Momentum trade has gone in reverse and Growth Stocks are key losers but remain ahead YTD
  • Developed international markets were down the least last week but remain down 10% for the year

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Equity Technicals have deteriorated to the point that over half of our US universe in is a Down Trend Phase
  • Tax loss selling is likely to intensify in the next few weeks
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively under-performed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
  • Surprisingly EM equities have outperformed developed markets in the last month.
  • REITS have performed extremely well and are YTD our best performing asset class
  • Q3 reporting is heavy in the US – looking for commentary on tariffs, slowing growth, and inflationary pressures

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Insights – Strong Signs of Sector and Style Rotation

It’s Happening- Signs of Sector and Style Rotation

  • Value sectors are gaining momentum while Growth sectors such as Tech is losing steam quickly
  • Similarly, strategies such as low volatility are gaining ground at the expense of pure momentum strategies
  • The last month has been brutal for equity investors but some signs of stability have emerged
    • Higher rates contributed to this as well as slower expected global growth due to an escalation of tariffs
  • YTD US large and small caps are in positive territory
    • The S&P 500 is up 5.7% for the year while the Russell 2000 is up a meager 1.9%
    • International strategies have underperformed due both to local market returns and a strong USD

Countries & Region:

  • The carnage continues among Chinese stocks
  • Commodity indices took a beating last week (due to oil primarily) while the Real Estate market kept recovering
  • In the US Value out-performed Value over the last 5 trading by over 40 bp
  • In international markets Value outperformed Growth by 90 bp
    • Traditional Value sectors such as Utilities and Staples outperformed along with Health Care
  • Health Care and Technology are the two best sectors YTD but Tech has been losing momentum

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, we saw a strong size effect last week with mega-caps outperforming
  • Value once again out-performed Growth as the Utilities, Health Care and Real Estate performed well
  • Growth and Momentum keep dominating YTD among US stocks but the lead is shrinking
  • Developed international markets were flat last week but EM equities took yet another hit
  • EM LATAM continues extremely volatile and driven by politics

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Equity Technicals have deteriorated but have recovered from the ugliness of prior weeks
  • Tax loss selling is likely to intensify in the next few weeks
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively under-performed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
  • Will EM equities recover? Seems to be all about the direction of the US dollar at the moment. Pretty beat up despite stronger fundamentals
  • REITS have performed extremely well and are YTD only slightly behind US equities
  • Q3 reporting is heavy in the US – looking for commentary on tariffs, slowing growth and inflationary pressures

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Insights – Bumped into the Ditch by Tariffs

Equity Markets Bloodied Again By Tariffs

  • A brutal week for risk-taking – all major equity asset classes lost money last week
  • Higher rates contributed to this as well as slower expected global growth due to an escalation of tariffs
  • EM Equities have taken a real beating this year down over 17%
  • YTD only US Large Cap is in positive territory
    • The S&P 500 is up 1% for the year

 

Countries & Region:

  • Carnage all over the place – a global retreat from risky assets
  • Equities vastly under-performed bonds last week despite generally higher global interest rates and decent growth
  • In the US Growth out-performed Value over the last 5 trading by over 40 bp
    • Traditional Value sectors such as Energy, Industrials and Telecom did not provide any downside protection
  • Utilities and Staples, two traditional low beta sectors lost the least

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, mega-caps underperformed small caps by 10 bp last week
  • Value once again under-performed Growth as the Energy and Telecom sectors provided a huge drag
  • Growth and Momentum keep dominating YTD among US stocks but the lead is shrinking
  • Developed international markets performed in line with US markets but lag significantly YTD
  • EM LATAM recovered last week driven by Brazilian election results favoring a pro-business candidate

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week again
  • Technicals have deteriorated massively – sure looks like a bear market or at least a very serious correction
  • We are starting to see oversold conditions but our RAI needs to remain another week in the Fearful Zone to act
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively underperformed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
    • Our models still like small caps better
  • Will EM equities recover? Seems to be all about the direction of the US dollar at the moment. Pretty beat up despite stronger fundamentals
  • What form will sanctions take against Saudi Arabia?
    • Maybe they get a free pass but in any case, I would expect the oil market to be materially affected.
    • Q3 reporting is heavy in the US – looking for commentary on tariffs, slowing growth and inflationary pressures

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Insights -Nowhere to Hide

Equity markets get body slammed with small caps taking the biggest hit

  • A brutal week for risk-taking – all major equity asset classes lost money last week
    • Higher rates contributed to this as well as slower expected global growth
  • EM Equities lost the least last week (-2%) but continue being the worst performing equity class YTD (-13.6%)
  • YTD US Large Cap has leapfrogged small caps
    • Small caps are down 10% in the last month
  • Our top-rated asset class at the moment is International Developed Markets (EAFE) but last week was not good for this asset (-3.9%)
  • Year-to-date US equities are vastly out-performing international assets – strong home bias fuelled by strong US growth plus an appreciating US dollar
  • In the US Growth outperformed Value but internationally the opposite was true – Investors keep hoping for Value to play better defense
  • Last week woke up investors to equity risk – our Risk Aversion Index jumped to the very top of the Normal Zone

 

Countries & Region:

  • Carnage all over the place – a global retreat from risky assets
  • Equities vastly under-performed bonds last week despite generally higher global interest rates
  • In the US Growth out-performed Value over the last 5 trading days but in the rest of the world Value outperformed
    • Traditional Value sectors such as Industrials, Materials, and Financials got hit hardest
  • Utilities and Staples, two traditional low beta sectors lost the least

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, mega-caps outperformed (lost less, unfortunately)
  • Value once again under-performed Growth –mainly due to losses in the Industrials, Materials and Finance sectors
  • Growth and Momentum keep dominating YTD among US stocks
  • Developed international markets slightly outperformed the US but remain in the red for the year
  • EM LATAM recovered last week driven by Brazilian election results favoring a pro-business candidate

 

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion should stay high and we expect choppy markets this coming week
  • Technicals have deteriorated massively – sure looks like a bear market or at least a very serious correction
  • The battle may not be between growth and value – feels more like momentum versus reversal
  • Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
  • Small caps have massively underperformed large caps over the last 3 months – risk is being shunned at the moment
    • Our models still like small caps better
  • Will EM equities recover? Seems to be all about the direction of the US dollar at the moment. Pretty beat up despite stronger fundamentals
  • What form will sanctions take against Saudi Arabia?
    • Maybe they get a free pass but in any case, I would expect the oil market to be materially affected.
    • Q3 reporting starts in the US – looking for commentary on tariffs, slowing growth, and inflationary pressures

 

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Equity Market Insights – Testing Our Faith In Value Investing

Value Investing is Teasing Us

  • Value under-performed Growth last week in the US and abroad – some of this is sector driven
  • Investors are losing faith in Value but should out-perform should the broad market tumble (lower beta)
  • Global equities had a rough week under-performing bonds
  • EM Equities continue under-performing YTD but last week lost the least (-0.3%)
  • Our models have recently turned more cautious about EM stocks despite being much cheaper than their developed market counterparts
  • Our top-rated asset class at the moment is International Developed Markets (EAFE) but last week was not good for this asset (-0.9%)
  • Year-to-date US equities are vastly out-performing international assets – strong home bias fuelled by strong US growth plus an appreciating US dollar
  • Momentum strategies are losing their effectiveness but remain top dog for the year
  • There is no sign of fear among investors – our Risk Aversion Index remains in the Exuberant Zone
  • We remain perplexed by this lack of concern especially as central banks are becoming less stimulative and the possibility of an all-out Global Trade War is rising

 

 

Countries & Region:

  • Poor showing in the last 5 days with Japan being the only major market showing gains
  • Equities under-performed bonds last week
  • Growth out-performed Value over the last 5 trading days in the US as well as internationally
    • Traditional Value sectors such as Materials and Financials gave up some of the gains from prior weeks
  • Energy performed best in the US as well as in global indices

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, mega-caps outperformed (lost less, unfortunately)
  • Value once again under-performed Growth –mainly due to losses in the Materials and Finance sectors
  • Growth and Momentum keep dominating YTD among US stocks
  • Asian Developed markets (mostly Japan) boosted international market returns but EAFE was still down for the week
  • EM LATAM recovered last week but trouble continues in the region (Brazil and Argentina)

 

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion continues to surprise on the downside – maybe old historical metrics don’t apply anymore? We don’t agree!
  • Momentum and growth were kings once again last week – can this continue? Will Value only out-perform in a crisis?
  • The battle may not be between growth and value – feels more like momentum versus reversal
  • Tariff wars do not seem to have much of an effect on US stocks – will this persist?
  • Small caps have quietly under-performed large caps over the last 3 months – has anybody noticed? YTD they are still ahead but barely
  • Will EM equities recover? Seems to be all about the direction of the US dollar at the moment

 

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

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