“Investing is not nearly as difficult as it looks. Successful investing involves doing a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes”
– Jack Bogle
►Equity markets have staged a remarkable recovery after a dismal Q4
►Over the last month, US small caps and EM stocks have performed the best
►Over the last 12 months all major equity asset classes are down with US Large Cap the least and EM the most
►Valuations while more reasonable than 3 months ago are not yet favorable – we may be seeing a reversal from the q4 downdraft, not a fundamental uptrend
►The key for equity markets is global growth and whether we are entering a slowdown or not
Countries & Region:
►A global recovery for most but with large differences in global market performance
►Commodity indices continue their recovery as oil prices firmed up helping resource oriented markets
►In the US Value and Growth performed in line last week, but higher dividend yield stocks really rocked it
►In international markets Value under-performed Growth by a wide margin driven primarily by sector differences
►Globally, Staples and Energy performed best last week while Financials gave back some of the gains from the previous week
Style & Sector:
►In the US, we saw Large Caps do best
►The size effect in the US was strong (in reverse of expectations)
►Within equity styles, Dividend Yield and Quality strategies resulted in better performance
►The Momentum trade has made a bit of a comeback in 2019 – it’s up 7% YTD
►Latam shot up last week – the index is up 14.7% for the year
This Coming Week:
►Risk Aversion should spring up this week with more earnings in the US
►Equity Technicals have improved to the point that only 13% of stocks remain in the Down Trend Phase
►Political drama in Washington is exacerbating the uncertainty of market participants but investors seem to be in denial thus far in 2019
►Brexit is up for the spring but prospects of passing Parliament are slim. Could we be starring at Referendum 2.0?
►Tariff wars are taking a bite with the IMF recently citing trade wars as the main reason for a cut in their forecast of global growth
►Small caps are the best performing major asset class in 2019 after a dismal 2018 – some of it is due to a snap back but we are still underweight small caps
►Surprisingly EM equities have outperformed developed markets in the last month.
►Our models still favor a reduction in risk in our portfolios with positive active allocations to cash and bonds
►The price of higher equity returns is discomfort – volatility has been too low in the last few years
►This coming week has huge earnings implications. Lots of companies reporting Q4.
To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click here
Eric J. Weigel
Global Focus Capital LLC
eweigel@gf-cap.com
______________________________________________________________________________
Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free
Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free
The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required
The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required