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Category Archives: Global Macro

Asset Allocation Insights -Rewarding Growth Assets

Weekly Asset Allocation Highlights

  • Equities had a big week last week as the market focused on growth again
  • International assets dominated US assets as the US dollar lost some ground
  • EM stocks, in particular, had a good week, up 2.7%. Very little was currency related
  • European developed market equities also had a big up week (2.5%)
  • REITS had been slowly recuperating but last week they suffered a setback
    • Their behavior has recently become more aligned/correlated with equity markets so the poor performance comes as a surprise
  • A 60/40 mix of purely US assets vastly under-performed a global version
  • Higher risk multi-asset strategies out-performed last week

Currencies:

  • The USD lost some strength last week
  • Within EM currencies the pattern was mixed
    • The Rand appreciated over 2% but the real lost close to 5%
  • The Rubble continues imploding despite a jump in oil prices
  • Among the major currencies, the US dollar lost the most ground versus the Euro followed by the Pound
  • The Yuan has stabilized after a period of depreciation but remains volatile within the “official” range

Commodities:

  • Grains are getting whipsawed by trade war on/off issues
    • Corn and soybeans continue being most at risk
  • Oil is also getting whipsawed by political tensions but had a big up week due to smaller inventories in the US, robust Chinese demand and output curbs in Iran
  • Gold and Silver recovered a bit last week but the trend is down especially as ST interest rates keep climbing higher
  • The large fall in coffee prices last week was blamed on the falling Brazilian real – expect a reversal this week

This Coming Week:

  • Watching the USD – crushing investors in international assets but should be losing some momentum
  • International equities keep losing ground to US stocks despite superior fundamentals
  • EM equities, in particular, are taking a huge hit both on the asset side as well as currency
    • China has a lot to do with this given its weight in the MSCI index (30%)
  • Growth is outperforming Value YTD but things may be turning around especially if interest rates remain range bound
  • Gold and Silver are losing their luster – not providing downside hedge and very driven by trends in short-term rates
  • What will make investors price risk more in line with history?
    • A growth scare in the US, maybe? A real inflation scare?
  • Macro Events: Case-Shiller, US GDP, Japanese & German Inflation, rig count in US, Chinese PMI

 

To read our full weekly report please click here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

The Bull Market For US Stocks Remains Alive But What About Internationally?

Weekly Equity Market Highlights

  • Global equities out-performed bonds over the last 5 trading days but the big story is the effect of the US Dollar on international asset class performance
  • EM equities, while on a downtrend, recovered somewhat last week (up 2.6%) but remain down 8% for the year
  • The recovery of EM as an asset class depends massively on what direction Chinese stocks take – China carries a 30% weight in the MSCI EM index
  • Year-to-date US equities are vastly out-performing international assets – strong home bias fuelled by strong US growth plus an appreciating US dollar
  • Growth keeps outperforming Value in the US, but last week the margin was only 10 bp for the Russell 3000
  • In the US last week was all about market cap – the smaller the cap the better
  • There is no sign of fear among investors – our Risk Aversion Index remains in the Exuberant Zone. We remain perplexed by this lack of concern especially as central banks are becoming less stimulative and the possibility of an all-out Global Trade War is rising

 


Countries & Region:

  • Good week all around with Australia being the only down market
  • China recovered nicely but remains in a downtrend for the year
  • EM equities have been on a downtrend this year but got a reprieve last week – up 2.6%
  • Lower beta sectors under-performed last week giving up some of the gains from the previous week
  • Energy stocks keep getting whipsawed but had the best weekly performance – up 2.5%

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, small cap won big last week while low vol and yield strategies under-performed
  • Value and Growth had inline performance but YTD the gap remains quite wide in favor of Growth
  • EM and International Developed equities out-performed US strategies – big US dollar effect
  • EM LATAM continues to struggle with Argentina becoming a concern (never mind Venezuela)

 


This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion – expect the RAI to jump into the Neutral Zone
    • Investors keep under-pricing risk
  • Will US stocks keep leaping ahead of the rest of the world? Is this just dependent on the USD?
  • Tariff wars do not seem to have much of an effect on US stocks – will this persist even as Trade negotiations stall?
  • Will EM equities recover? Seems to be all about the direction of China and the the US dollar at the moment
  • Are Chinese equities going to further lose ground or is this temporary? Is the down trend due to tariffs or domestic growth issues?

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

 

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Asset Allocation Insights – The US Dollar is Killing my Best Ideas

Weekly Asset Allocation Highlights

  • The out-performance of domestic assets continued last week
  • A 60/40 mix of purely US assets vastly out-performed a global version
  • REITS had been slowly recuperating but last week they really took off
    • Their behavior has recently become more aligned/correlated with equity markets
  • International stocks continue under-performing despite cheaper valuations
    • EAFE in local currency is outperforming by 3.33% YTD
    • EM in local currency is outperforming by 5.13% YTD

Currencies:

  • The USD keeps chugging along notching weekly wins
  • EM currencies continue their pattern of depreciation
  • The biggest loser was the SA Rand – concerns over slower economic growth was a driver as well as contagion from the Turkish Lira
  • The rubble has stabilized but for how long?
  • The YEN was up slightly last week as monetary policy is likely to normalize soon in Japan

Commodities:

  • Grains are getting whipsawed by trade war on/off issues
  • Oil is also getting whipsawed by political tensions between the US and Iran – technicals are deteriorating
  • Gold and Silver continue a down-trend with little sign of relief especially as ST interest rates keep climbing higher
  • Lumber prices have become incredibly volatile and subject to trade issues between CA and the US

This Coming Week:

  • Watching the USD – crushing investors in international assets
  • International equities keep losing ground to US stocks despite superior fundamentals
  • EM equities in particular are taking a huge hit both on the asset side as well as currency
  • Growth is outperforming Value YTD but things may be turning around especially if interest rates remain range bound
  • Gold and Silver are losing their luster – not providing downside hedge and very driven by trends in short-term rates
  • What will make investors price risk more in line with history? A growth scare in the US, maybe? A real inflation scare?

To read our full weekly report please click here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Yikes – The Asset Class with the Best Long-Term Prospects is Imploding

Weekly Equity Market Highlights

  • Global equities under-performed bonds by a wide margin over the last 5 trading days
  • EM equities, in particular, are taking a huge hit – down almost 6% in the last 5 days
  • We rate EM equities as having the best long-term prospects but yikes, this hurts
  • Chinese stocks are imploding – is this all about a trade war or more significant trade issues?
  • Year-to-date US equities are vastly out-performing international assets – strong home bias plus an appreciating US dollar
  • Earnings season in the US is almost over – a good season was had by most
  • Value lost less than Growth in the US last week – is that out-performance?
  • Low volatility and high yield had gained last week but value indices were down

 


Countries & Region:

  • Tough week all around with the US losing the least
  • EM equities have been on a downward trend this year and it got worse this week with the index down 5.3%
  • China’s equity market continues to be very volatile. Trade war jitters have had a much larger effect on Chinese stocks – stocks were down over 6% in the last 5 days
  • Global sectors had losses except for Utilities and Staples – a tough week overall
  • Energy stocks keep getting whipsawed by the commodity

 


 

 

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, low vol and dividend yield were winners over the last 5 trading days
  • The “Value” comeback seems highly dependent on the path of interest rates
    • When people worry about rising rates “value” stocks take a hit, when they don’t they do well
  • Momentum took a hit last week – this style is quickly losing steam but still remains top dog for 2018
  • EM and International Developed equities continue their down trend
  • A big factor in relative performance rankings is the direction of the US dollar

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion – expect the RAI to jump into the Neutral Zone
    • Investors keep under-pricing risk
  • Will value only outperform growth when interest rates in the US drop?
    • Will EM equities recover? The Turkey currency crisis merits some attention. Watch out for contagion effects
  • Are Chinese equities going to implode or is this temporary? Is the down trend due to tariffs or domestic growth issues?

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click  here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Weekly Equity Market Highlights – Where is the Bear?

Weekly Equity Market Highlights

  • Global equities outperformed bonds by a wide margin over the last 5 trading days
  • Where is the Bear? We know it is lurking behind the scenes but conditions still favor equities over bonds
  • Emerging market equities were the best-performing equity sub-asset class – a reversal from some dismal prior weeks
  • Year-to-date US equities are vastly out-performing international assets – strong home bias plus an appreciating US dollar
  • Earnings season in the US is almost over – a good season was had by most
  • Growth keeps outperforming value but most of the real action is at the sector level and highly dependant on the interest rate environment
  • China’s equity market continues to be very volatile – Trade war jitters have had a much larger effect on Chinese stocks

Countries & Region:

  • Large caps dominated in the last week with the S&P 500 up 1%
  • EM equities have been on a downtrend this year but last week was up 1.1% – part of it was currency related
  • China’s equity market continues to be very volatile. Trade war jitters have had a much larger effect on Chinese stocks
  • Telecom had a nice recovery last week with the global sector index up 2.7% – people continue searching for yield
  • Tech resumed its upward march while Energy stocks keep getting whipsawed by the commodity

Style & Sector:

  • In the US, momentum and growth keep leaping ahead
  • The “Value” comeback seems highly dependent on the path of interest rates
    • When people worry about rising rates “value” stocks take a hit, when they don’t they do well
  • Size or market cap behaved perversely – the larger the cap the better the performance
  • EM equities out-performed last week with Asia doing particularly well
  • LATAM gave back some of the gains from last week
  • A big factor in relative performance rankings is the direction of the US dollar

This Coming Week:

  • Risk Aversion – expect the RAI to jump into the Neutral Zone – Investors keep under-pricing risk
  • Market Internals – expected to remain “balanced” -the technicals do not support a bear market
  • Will growth keep outperforming value? Much depends on the direction of interest rates
  • Will EM equities recover? The Turkey currency crisis merits some attention. Watch out for contagion effects
  • More tariffs on the horizon? Will US stocks react to this? Most of the effect thus far has been on non-US stocks

To read our weekly report including style factor breakdowns please click here

Eric J. Weigel

Global Focus Capital LLC

eweigel@gf-cap.com

___________________________________________________________________________________

Publications:

Weekly Asset Allocation Review – Free

Weekly Equity Themes Review – Free

The Equity Observer (Monthly) – Subscription Required

The Asset Allocation Advisor (Monthly) – Subscription Required

 

Key Asset Allocation Insights – Weekly Review

The Week In Review

  • Asset allocation strategies came under attack last week as global capital markets saw the period of extreme calm come to an end
  • Between the “memo”, earnings week and Super Bowl preparations there was a lot going on
  • None of the key asset classes that we use in our asset allocation process escaped the increase in investor risk aversion. Volatility really spiked up on Friday
  • The Fed did not hike rates at Janet Yellen’s last meeting as Chair but did raise the specter of inflation
    We have been in the camp that believes that investors have been underpricing inflation risk
  • Three huge US companies (JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway, and Amazon) are planning to launch their own health care network. Nobody has found the cost-containment magic. Maybe self-insuring and pooling “healthy” employees is the way to go

Key Asset Classes:

Last week saw the best performing asset classes of last year take the biggest hit

Asset classes across the board suffered losses. Diversification only lessened the blow

 

 

 

Emerging markets still remain in an UP TREND but profit-taking may have set in

Interest sensitive asset classes are firmly entrenched in Down Trends

 

 


Currencies:

The USD keeps depreciating and the Trump administration seems to favor this trend

A weak USD should provide a boost to commodity prices

A weak USD also makes imports more expensive further boosting inflationary pressures

In my view, USD depreciation is a function of political turmoil in DC

Higher short-term rates in the US provide a floor to the USD – don’t expect massive USD depreciation


Commodities:

In a week where news outlets told us that investors once again became fearful of inflationary pressures, commodities did not fare well

I am a bit skeptical that the reason the equity market got clobbered was a realization that inflation was a problem

I still think that inflation risk is underpriced by investors, but the stress in the equity market seems unrelated to commodity prices

 


Investor Risk Aversion:

Our most recent Risk Aversion Index reading returned to the Normal Zone

On a 4 week moving average basis, the reading is still in the Euphoria Zone

Prior weeks readings have been extraordinarily low indicting great investor complacency

 

We expect a risk on/off market in 2018 – Friday might have been the start of more normal risk levels


Chart of the Week:

Inflationary expectations are ratcheting up

Wage growth is the most cited reason, followed by a strong US economy

A weak USD is also at work

 

 

 


What We See This Week:

  • A bit more fear – I see a lot more risk on/off in 2018
  • Further profit taking – I think that investors know that 2017 was a gift from above
  • Taking some money off the table may be a smart move especially given valuation levels
    The money is likely to be deployed in cash, not bonds
  • Continued distaste for bonds as an asset class
  • Some recovery among healthcare stocks in the US – the JP Morgan, Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon venture will take time to crystallize
  • Lots of earnings – big companies reporting( Disney, Gilead, Tesla, Mondelez, GM, Allergan, Humana, Prudential, Cerner, Cummings, …)

Eric J. Weigel

Managing Partner, Global Focus Capital LLC


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DISCLAIMER: NOTHING HEREIN SHALL BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, A RECOMMENDATION OR SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT PREDICT OR GUARANTEE FUTURE SIMILAR RESULTS. SEEK THE ADVICE OF AN INVESTMENT MANAGER, LAWYER AND ACCOUNTANT BEFORE YOU INVEST. DON’T RELY ON ANYTHING HEREIN. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE INVESTMENT NEEDS OR SUITABILITY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL. THERE IS NO PROMISE TO CORRECT ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OR NOTIFY THE READER OF ANY SUCH ERRORS

Keeping It Real – The Impact of Fees, Taxes and Inflation

Real Stock ChartWhat’s more important to investors than real returns? 

In a previous note (Leaving Money on the Table) we wrote about the impact of taxes and fees on net strategy returns. Our focus was more conceptual and we highlighted the highly customized nature of after-tax portfolio management advice.

Some of our readers, however, remembered empirical work we had done a number of years back using broad US stock and bond market returns. We decided to update our previous research on the effect of taxes, fees and inflation on the real return to investors.

Our methodology is simple.  By necessity we employ some simplifying assumptions regarding fees and taxes. We use S&P 500 and US Government Ten-Year Note returns from the end of 1982 to the end of 2015.

We subtract three levels of “costs” from gross returns:

  • Management Fees
  • Taxes (short and long-term)
  • Purchasing Power (inflation)

Real Stock ReturnsReal Bond Returns

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The results are eye opening and a timely reminder of the drag on investment returns.  A lot of investors would be surprised to see the extent of this drag on their portfolios but in the real world the results may actually turn out to be even worse. 

Why? For one many investors pay high fees on their portfolios and ignore the tax efficiency of their strategies.

While not as sexy as a discussion of strategy returns or smart beta minimizing the extent of the cost drag from fees, taxes and loss of purchasing power is an important part of sustained wealth creation

 Management fees on portfolios should be scrutinized for value add.  Portfolio management has a cost. Index strategies are now available on most market segments in equity and fixed income markets at low cost but the combination of strategies and overall asset allocation still needs to be managed.

Jack Bogle has been talking about the importance of controlling fees for years and investors as a group may have become recently more fee sensitive especially as the realization sinks in that we are most likely going to be living in a low return environment for the next decade.

Paying high fees in a low return environment would certainly impair wealth accumulation targets.  Paying fees commensurate with value add should be the goal of investors.

As Benjamin Franklin once said, taxes are as certain as death and as such the best that one can do is minimize the tax bite of investment strategies. Tax loss harvesting, low portfolio turnover, proper strategy selection, and legal deferment of taxable events are elements of a coherent well-designed tax minimization strategy.

Finally, a huge drag on net real returns has been the loss of purchasing power. While inflation in recent years has been below historical norms the loss of purchasing power can best be thought of as an almost invisible downward pull on wealth creation efforts.

Not all investment strategies behave in the same manner in the face of inflationary forces.  Properly aligning investment strategies to the expected inflationary environment is an important component of minimizing the deleterious effects of a loss of purchasing power.

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    Eric J. Weigel

    Managing Partner, Global Focus Capital LLC

    Feel free to contact us at Global Focus Capital LLC (mailto:eweigel@gf-cap.com or visit our website at https://gf-cap.com to find out more about our asset management strategies, consulting/OCIO solutions, and research subscriptions.

    DISCLAIMER: NOTHING HEREIN SHALL BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, A RECOMMENDATION OR SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT PREDICT OR GUARANTEE FUTURE SIMILAR RESULTS. SEEK THE ADVICE OF AN INVESTMENT MANAGER, LAWYER AND ACCOUNTANT BEFORE YOU INVEST. DON’T RELY ON ANYTHING HEREIN. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE INVESTMENT NEEDS OR SUITABILITY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL. THERE IS NO PROMISE TO CORRECT ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OR NOTIFY THE READER OF ANY SUCH ERRORS

    Even A Wide Moat Won’t Save This Brexit

    caerlaverock-castle-1220664-639x479In the weeks leading up to the Brexit referendum vote our assumption was that while the vote would be close the “remain” side would eventually prevail.  Our feeling was, I must admit, more based on our observation that under most circumstances electorates prefer to stay with the status quo.

    My relatives in the UK had warned me against making such an assumption, but from a pure economic perspective the evidence seemed stacked in favor of remaining within the EU.

    Now that we know the outcome of the vote and Brexit has become a reality it downs on me how out of touch we can sometimes be when dealing with unhappy electorates.  The evidence is scant for any positive economic benefit for separation from the EU, but the hope for change is sometimes so strong so as to overwhelm rational thought.  In my opinion, while the world may have recovered economically from the depths of the 2008 Financial Crisis the seeds of discontent are still alive within large segments of the population. 

    The rise of nationalism in many countries is tied to the search for simple solutions for promoting adequate growth in the face of weak labor markets and rising income inequality.  These simple solutions are often expressed in the form of isolationist strategies with the underlying assumption being that inadequacies in economic growth are caused by outside forces.

    But just as building a moat around one’s castle is a totally inadequate way in today’s world to keep outside influences at bay so are policies pretending that world economic forces can be neutralized at one’s door step.

    Markets for goods and services today are truly global in nature and while pockets of every economy will remain domestically driven the vast majority of global economic activity takes place in the context of highly competitive supply and demand conditions involving companies frequently conducting business from multiple geographies.  Borders don’t matter as much as the ability to offer a value proposition to both producers and consumers.

    The 52% of voters in the UK that voted for pulling out of the EU are betting that the UK economy will be better off long-term not being part of the larger economic union.  Stifling regulations imposed by the EU are one shackle that UK domiciled companies will no longer have to bear. Another, it is argued, will be removing the burden of subsidizing weaker members of the union.

    But while the long-term ramifications of Brexit will not be known in totality for at least a decade or two the shorter-term issues are likely to wreak havoc with investor sentiment.  “Risk-off” is likely is to stay with us for a bit longer than expected!

    Another Brexit casualty will be sterling denominated assets.  Not only will the British Pound depreciate significantly but the demand for UK domiciled stocks and bonds will decrease as well.  Sellers will remain highly incentivized so prices will need to drop for buyers and sellers to meet.  None of this is rocket science and markets on t+1 are already reflecting these negatives.

    While the short-term implications for UK equity owners are negative we do not believe that Brexit will lead to the end of the world.  After all our belief is that company fundamentals drive long-term investor rewards and spikes in investor sentiment both positive and negative appear as mere blips in long-term performance charts.

    Especially for companies not directly tied to the regulatory consequences of Brexit the news may be good in the short-term as investors express an increased preference for lower uncertainty situations.  Even for many UK companies the news does not constitute a death sentence as many already conduct operations in geographically diversified locales.  For some export-driven companies the depreciation of the pound will provide short-term competitive advantages.

    UK-domiciled assets will not doubt remain under pressure for the foreseeable future.  Withdrawing from the EU bloc is fraught with technicalities and will require the negotiation of dozens of trade agreements.  Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty will have to be invoked which will then allow for a two year period of negotiation between the EU and the UK government.  Pro-Brexit politicians have openly discussed delaying invoking Article 50 leading to most likely a period of 4 to 5 years of uncertainty. While the Brexit side rejoices today the withdrawal from the EU will not be immediate.

    Most times when a political event such as Brexit occurs the size of the overall economic pie does not change materially at least over short and intermediate terms. What tends to happen instead is that the pie gets splits up differently creating losers and winners. 

    Capital markets are reacting post-referendum as if the size of the pie has permanently shrunk and everybody will go hungry. The reaction of global capital markets would suggest dire consequences for global growth. Risky assets are getting uniformly destroyed and investors are flocking to safe heavens such as the US dollar, long-term US government bonds and precious metals.

    Our view is that while global economic growth will experience a hiccup the longer-term effect for global growth will not be significant. For long-term investors with multi-asset class portfolios we do not expect a lasting effect from Brexit but understanding the likely short-term winners and losers could actually yield some very rewarding tactical trades.

    In many ways this crisis while most likely painful for the UK economy resembles other periods in history when political events led to a spike in capital market volatility and a rise in investor risk aversion.  Such periods were uncomfortable for investors but also yielded tremendous opportunities to add value.

    What can we reasonable expect over the next few weeks?

    • Investor risk aversion will remain elevated as investors seek to understand the long-term implications of Brexit
    • The US dollar, Swiss Franc and the Yen will strengthen at the expense of the Euro and the British Pound
    • Commodities apart from precious metals will face downward pressures as the US dollar appreciates. We, however, believe that oil will find its footing reasonable soon as supply/demand conditions seem to be close to equilibrium
    • Investors will increase the demand for high quality bonds leading to further interest rate decreases. Long duration bonds will benefit the most. Interest rate sensitive assets such as real estate will likewise benefit.
    • The US Federal Reserve will not raise rates in July and we would be surprised if they institute any hikes this year. The ECB and the Bank of England will cut rates and increase monetary stimulus. Global liquidity will remain plentiful.
    • Investors with short time horizons will flee risky assets en masse.  We should expect outflows from equities to accelerate in the short-term.  European and UK portfolios will see the sharpest outflows
    • Extreme contrarians will advocate buying into UK equities but there will be few takers. We would advocate passing on this trade for now
    • Contrarians will also advocate buying stocks domiciled in the US. Such a trade won’t require, in our opinion, as long as of a time horizon as buying UK stocks and it will thus entail less risk. Our two top equity tilts remain low valuation and above-average company profitability

     

    In general, we would advocate making only small adjustments to multi-asset class portfolios.  The adjustments would be more driven by risk management considerations as we expect asset class volatility to remain elevated for the remainder of 2016.  Our risk aversion index (RAI) has also recently moved into the “extreme fear” zone thus calling for a more defensive risk posture.

    From a tactical perspective we see opportunities emerging more from bottom-up stock selection activities rather than from sector or country allocation decisions.  When whole markets sells off as we saw on the day after Brexit the good gets thrown out with the bad.

    In a crisis company fundamentals are often ignored as investors are forced to sell their most liquid holdings first.  Market turmoil tends to create attractive entry points for investments with robust long-term fundamentals.  We expect global equity markets to remain under pressure next week and we would thus advocate waiting a bit longer to put any excess cash to work.

     

    Eric J. Weigel

    Managing Partner, Global Focus Capital LLC

    Feel free to contact us at Global Focus Capital LLC (mailto:eweigel@gf-cap.com or visit our website at https://gf-cap.com to find out more about our asset management strategies, consulting/OCIO solutions, and research subscriptions.

    DISCLAIMER: NOTHING HEREIN SHALL BE CONSTRUED AS INVESTMENT ADVICE, A RECOMMENDATION OR SOLICITATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY SECURITY. PAST PERFORMANCE DOES NOT PREDICT OR GUARANTEE FUTURE SIMILAR RESULTS. SEEK THE ADVICE OF AN INVESTMENT MANAGER, LAWYER AND ACCOUNTANT BEFORE YOU INVEST. DON’T RELY ON ANYTHING HEREIN. DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS IS FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY AND DOES NOT CONSIDER THE INVESTMENT NEEDS OR SUITABILITY OF ANY INDIVIDUAL. THERE IS NO PROMISE TO CORRECT ANY ERRORS OR OMISSIONS OR NOTIFY THE READER OF ANY SUCH ERRORS

    Should Inflationary Expectations Be So Sticky?

    Capital markets have brought lots of surprises this year. Two developments especially – recovering commodity markets and a falling US dollar – have important implications for future consumer prices.

    Capital market participants do not seem overly sensitive to these two developments in terms of expectations of future inflation.   Commodity prices are for the most part an “input” into the type of goods and services consumed.  The US dollar on the other hand acts as a translator of value between goods produced abroad and domestic consumers.

    Recent consumer price changes have been muted in the last few years.  Monetary authorities in the US as well as abroad seem particularly troubled by the prospect of deflation and have in some cases even resorted to the use of negative policy rates to revive growth.

    The April 14 BLS Report on the CPI-U estimates year-over-year inflation at just 0.9%.  This number is welcome news after near zero inflation for most of 2015, but still lags the historical norm of 3% annual inflation by a wide margin.

    CPI BREAKDOWN APRIL 2016A quick glance at the latest report provides interesting clues.  Two of the four main categories of consumption categories – Food, Energy, Commodities Less Food & Energy, and Services – exhibit price depreciation over the last year.

    The biggest deflationary force has been the Energy category with a 12.6% price drop.  The other deflationary category is Commodities Less Food & Energy with a -0.4% year-over-year price change.

    Federal Reserve members seem concerned with the possibility of deflation in the US, but what about market participants?  We evaluate two measures – the breakeven rates from TIP prices measuring the expected inflation over the next 5 years (orange line) and the so called 5-over-5 rates measuring inflation expectations five years from now over the next five years (green line). To provide context we also illustrate the rolling year-over-year CPI-U inflation.

    infl expt april 2016

    Capital market participants are expecting an uptick to inflation, but in light of this year’s commodity price increases and the depreciation of the US dollar do these expectations need to be revised? Yes, the market implied inflationary expectations seem low in relation to the resurgence in commodity prices and the depreciation of the US dollar.

    Where do we see inflationary expectations heading to?  Our research based on our econometric model of 5 year inflationary expectations calls for steady but moderate upward revisions.

    BE5 INFL PREDICTIONSThe latest market-based estimate of 1.61% is expected according to our model to rise to 1.7% by the end of Q2 and to 1.9% by the end of the year.

    We are not expecting a huge bump up yet in inflationary expectations in large part due to the fact that rising commodity prices and a depreciating USD have only been in place for a short period of time.

    Many strategists are still skeptical that these two trends have legs.  Our view is that even if there is no further change for the remainder of the year inflationary expectations have been too low and will slowly drift up.

    What are the implications for investors of slowly rising inflationary expectations?  For now the more direct impact for investors of rising commodity prices and a falling US dollar is being felt through the rise of previously unloved sectors such as Energy and Materials as well as the revival of Emerging Market Equities.

    The transmission mechanism from higher commodity prices and changes in the value of the US dollar to actual inflation pressures is not immediate of for that manner always straightforward as many other forces such as demographics and the overall health of the global economy come to bear.

    Rising inflationary expectations would according to our risk management methodology benefit holders of risky assets such as equities, commodities and real estate.  Safer assets such as bonds would suffer as we would expect higher inflationary expectations to translate to higher nominal interest rates.  The effect would obviously be greater the longer the duration of the assets.

    Click here to download the report: Should Inflationary Expectations Be So Sticky

     

    Sincerely,

    Eric J. Weigel
    Managing Partner and Founder of Global Focus Capital LLC

    eweigel@gf-cap.com

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